The housing shortage is reshaping what "affordable" means and who builds it

The future of affordable housing depends on three forces colliding right now: the shortage of homes in most U.S. cities, the cost of building new ones, and the willingness of governments to fund or regulate differently than they do today. No single outcome is locked in. What gets built, who can live there, and how much it costs will vary sharply by region — some cities are already moving toward solutions that others have not yet tried.

The most visible change is already happening: more mixed-income housing, where affordable units sit alongside market-rate ones in the same building. This reduces the stigma of "affordable housing" as a separate category and spreads costs across a larger project. It also means fewer dedicated affordable buildings and more scattered units within new development. That shift changes how people find housing and how long they can stay.

Key Takeaways

  • Mixed-income buildings are becoming the default model in many cities, meaning affordable units will be harder to identify and may have different lease terms than market-rate ones in the same building.
  • Zoning changes — allowing duplexes, triplexes, and small apartment buildings in single-family neighborhoods — will increase the total housing supply but not necessarily create more units reserved for lower incomes.
  • Permanent supportive housing (combining affordable rent with on-site services) is expanding in cities with chronic homelessness, but funding remains limited and varies by state.
  • Remote work and migration patterns are shifting which regions face the worst shortages, meaning affordable housing crises will worsen in some places while others see temporary relief.
  • Tenant protections and rent control policies are diverging by state, so the stability of affordable housing will depend increasingly on where you live.

Zoning changes will add more housing, but not all of it will be affordable

Cities and states are removing rules that banned apartment buildings and duplexes in neighborhoods zoned only for single-family homes. Minneapolis eliminated single-family zoning citywide in 2020. California allows duplexes on single-family lots statewide. Oregon banned single-family zoning in cities. These changes will add housing — more units means more supply, which can slow rent growth — but they do not automatically create affordable units.

A new duplex or triplex built on a previously single-family lot will rent at market rate unless the city requires or subsidizes affordability. Some cities pair zoning changes with requirements that new buildings include a percentage of affordable units, or with tax breaks for developers who do. Others do not. The result: more total housing in some places, but affordability depends on what rules the city attaches to the zoning change. A reader in a city considering these changes should watch what affordability requirements, if any, are part of the proposal.

Mixed-income buildings are becoming standard, changing how affordable housing works

Rather than building separate affordable housing complexes, cities and developers increasingly build one project with both affordable and market-rate units. A 200-unit apartment building might have 40 affordable units and 160 at market rate. The affordable units are usually managed the same way as the market-rate ones — same building, same landlord, same lease terms — but with rent capped by subsidy or regulation.

This model spreads development costs and reduces the visible separation between affordable and market-rate housing. It also means affordable units are scattered throughout new construction rather than concentrated in dedicated buildings. For someone looking for affordable housing, this makes the search harder: you cannot straightforward look for "affordable housing complexes" in your area. You have to check individual new buildings to see whether they include affordable units and what the income limits are.

The trade-off is stability. In a dedicated affordable building, all residents have similar lease protections and rent limits. In a mixed-income building, affordable residents may have different lease terms, shorter lease lengths, or different rules than market-rate tenants in the same building. Some cities require equal treatment; others do not.

Permanent supportive housing is expanding but remains underfunded

Permanent supportive housing combines affordable rent with on-site services — case management, mental health care, job training, or substance abuse counseling. It is designed for people experiencing chronic homelessness or those with disabilities who need both housing and support to stay housed. Cities like Salt Lake City, Denver, and New York have expanded these programs significantly in the past five years.

The model works: people stay housed longer and use emergency services less often. But it is expensive. A permanent supportive housing unit costs more to operate than a standard affordable apartment because of the staff and services. Funding comes from a mix of federal grants, state budgets, and local money — and the mix varies widely. A city with dedicated funding can expand these programs; one without it cannot. Over the next five to ten years, expect permanent supportive housing to grow in cities that have committed funding, and to remain scarce in places that have not.

Rent control and tenant protections are diverging by state

Some states are strengthening tenant protections: limiting rent increases, requiring longer notice before eviction, or restricting when landlords can raise rent. California caps rent increases at 5 percent plus inflation (up to 10 percent total) in most units. Oregon limits increases to 7 percent plus inflation. Other states have no statewide rent control and allow cities to set their own rules — which means some cities have strong protections and neighboring ones do not.

This divergence matters for the future of affordable housing because protections affect whether people can stay in their homes as rents rise. In a state with strong tenant protections, an affordable unit may remain affordable longer. In a state with few protections, the same unit may become unaffordable within a few years as the landlord raises rent. Over the next decade, expect the gap between high-protection and low-protection states to widen, meaning housing stability will depend increasingly on geography.

Remote work is shifting where housing shortages are worst

When remote work became common during the pandemic, some people moved away from expensive coastal cities to cheaper regions. This temporarily eased pressure in some places and worsened it in others. A secondary city that was affordable five years ago may now face a housing shortage because remote workers moved there. A coastal city may have slightly more available housing than before.

This pattern is not uniform — some remote workers have returned to offices, and migration patterns vary by industry and income level. But the shift has shown that housing crises are not permanent fixtures of certain cities; they can move. Over the next five to ten years, expect affordable housing shortages to worsen in some regions (secondary cities gaining population, mountain towns, parts of the South) and to stabilize or improve in others (some coastal cities, cities losing population). The future of affordable housing will look different depending on which region you are in.

Federal funding for affordable housing remains uncertain

Most affordable housing programs rely on federal funding: the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit, Community Development Block Grants, HOME grants, and others. These programs have existed for decades but their funding levels change with Congress and the presidential administration. A year with increased funding means more new affordable units; a year with cuts means fewer.

Looking ahead, the trajectory is unclear. Some policymakers argue that affordable housing is a federal responsibility and should be funded at higher levels. Others argue that housing is a local issue and federal funding should be reduced. The outcome will shape how many new affordable units get built and how quickly. A reader concerned about affordable housing availability in their region should monitor their state and local budget discussions, because that is where the actual funding decisions happen.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will affordable housing become easier or harder to find in the next five years?

It depends on your region. Cities adding zoning changes and mixed-income buildings may see more total housing, which can slow rent growth. Cities without these changes will likely see affordability worsen. Some regions gaining remote workers will face new shortages; others may see temporary relief. Check your local city council or housing authority for zoning and development plans.

What is the difference between affordable housing now and what it will look like in ten years?

Today, affordable housing is often in separate buildings. In ten years, it will more often be mixed with market-rate housing in the same building. This makes it harder to find but may reduce stigma. Lease terms and protections may also differ between affordable and market-rate units in the same building, depending on your state's rules.

Is permanent supportive housing going to be available where I live?

Permanent supportive housing is expanding in cities with dedicated funding and chronic homelessness crises, but it remains scarce in most places. Contact your local housing authority or homeless services agency to ask whether these programs exist in your area and what the waitlist looks like.

Will rent control protect affordable housing in my state?

Rent control rules vary sharply by state. Some states cap increases; others allow unlimited raises. Check your state housing authority website or your city council to see what protections exist where you live. Even with protections, affordability depends on the starting rent and the size of allowed increases.

How will remote work changes affect housing in my city?

If your city is gaining remote workers, housing demand and rents may rise. If it is losing them, pressure may ease. Local real estate data and migration studies can show whether your region is gaining or losing population. Your city planning department can also discuss expected growth and how it plans to address housing.